Skip to main content

For Real? The Really Real Returns of Real Estate

brown wooden house near green grass field during daytime

Despite what your parents tell you, a house is not an investment. It's a depreciating asset. A house, like any physical asset lose value over time. They age and wear down. To slow down the depreciation, you need to constantly throw money at it for maintenance. This is simply to maintain the value, not to increase it.

Houses without maintenance is like an unrefrigerated milk, it goes bad fast . Take a look at any abandoned home. After only a few months you see damaged roofs, clogged gutters, cracked windows, and probably some unwelcomed furry tenants.

Maintenance can be pricey. A conservative rule-of-thumb is 1% of your home's value annually. So if your home is valued at $500K, you should budget $5K a year for maintenance. Obviously this is a ballpark figure and should be taken with a grain of salt. Your cost will vary depending on a number of factors such as home age, weather conditions, etc.

You've heard the stories from friends and family, homes doubling in value and people getting "rich". The problem with these stories is, like a lazy artist they don't paint the full picture. These "success stories" are backed by overly-simplified math, looking only at a house's current value against its original cost. 

If you bought a house for $500K and sold it for $1M after 30 years you'd probably be pretty happy. You doubled your money!

Not so fast, let's unpack this. Doubling your money after 30 years, works out to be only a 2.33% annual return. That's even before you factor in inflation, taxes, transaction fees and maintenance costs. Once you factor in the costs, you'll end up in the red.

If you look at US housing data from 1890-2019, the annual inflation-adjusted return for houses is just 0.4%. Again this is before factoring in all the costs associated with homeownership.

Homeownership might be right for you depending on your goals. However, don't treat it as an investment as it'll surely disappoint.








Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Today's Special: Humble Pie

You champion a project, fight for an idea, and then...reality sets in. That churning in your stomach isn't butterflies, it's the realization you've missed the mark.  Pride will puff up your chest, and kick in the "defend at all costs" instinct. But arguing with the umpire never changed a call. Admitting you're wrong isn't a sign of weakness. It can strengthen your professional standing. In a world obsessed with the illusion of infallibility, the courage to adjust course is a breath of fresh air. It shows you're confident enough to be wrong, and adaptable enough to learn from it. Do your research, think critically, and stand behind your decisions. But when the data whispers (or screams) otherwise, don't be afraid to swallow that slice of humble pie. Be the first to acknowledge. Don't wait for someone to point out your mistake. Be open, take responsibility, and most importantly, focus on what you're going to do to address it. Don't dwell ...

When Perfect Becomes a Problem: The iCar Story

Let's talk about Apple's iCar, or rather, the ghost of it. A decade. Ten billion dollars. Poof. Gone. Like a puff of smoke from a dream that never quite woke up. They wanted to launch a revolution, a fully-formed, flawless chariot. But revolutions aren't born in secret labs; they're forged in the messy, chaotic crucible of the real world. You don't build a movement by hiding in the shadows. You don't create a product people love by ignoring them. You don't change the world by waiting for perfection. It's about the minimum viable. It's about shipping early, shipping often, and listening—really listening—to the people you're trying to serve. Apple built a cathedral of secrecy. A monument to what might have been. And then, they tore it down.  They spent billions on a dream, while ignoring the simple truth: the market doesn't care about your dreams. It cares about solutions. It cares about things that work. So, here's the lesson: stop chasing...

Why We Shouldn't Be Afraid of Ambiguity

Ambiguity. That fuzzy monster that chases us down darkened hallways, whispering doubts about our roadmap and feature sets. You know the feeling. You constantly wrestle with unknowns: Will users like this? Is this the right direction? Frankly, if you had a nickel for every time the answer wasn't crystal clear, well, you might actually want to chase that ambiguity down the hall. But here's the thing: ambiguity isn't your enemy. It's your dance partner. Innovation rarely happens in a land of perfect clarity. Sure, there's a time for well-defined processes. But when you're creating something new, there are bound to be more questions than answers. The key is to learn to waltz with the unknown .  Embrace the experiment. Don't be afraid to throw some spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.  Focus on outcomes, not outputs. Don't get hung up on features. What problem are you trying to solve? How will you measure success? Get comfortable with "go...