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Bias For Clarity

Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction.   Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud.  Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end.  The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off.  Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea

Stocks Always Go Up....Eventually

Silver Imac Displaying Line Graph Placed on Desk

Investing comes with a lot of noise. Changing trends, politics, forecasts, the list goes on. Countless factors influence the stock market. Moving it up and down, sometimes aggressively in a matter of moments.

A sudden decline is a scary prospect, leaving new investors hesitant to dive in. Nobody wants to invest $1,000 only to have it be worth $900 by day's end.

Unfortunately, the ups and downs are part of the game. The good news is that the ups are a lot more persistent than the downs.

Taking a look at S&P 500 returns from 1926-2015, you can see that as more time passes, the greater the odds are for a positive return.

Probability
Time HorizonPositiveNegative
Daily54%46%
Quarterly 68%32%
Annually74%26%
5 Years86%14%
10 Years94%6%
20 Years100%0%
Source: Bates, L. (2018) Beat the Bank: The Canadian Guide to Simply Successful Investing Toronto, ON: Audey Press.

If you're investing for a day, you're pretty much gambling. It's a coin flip whether you'll come out on top. The odds shift greater and greater towards your favour the longer your time horizon. Of course nothing is guaranteed and past performance is no indication of future performance, but the data is convincing and it makes sense when you think about it.

When you own a stock, you're business owner. When you own a diversified portfolio, you own a lot of businesses. If you believe businesses as a whole will continue to innovate and grow, it's reasonable to believe that stocks over time will provide a positive return.

Diversification is key here. Most stocks on their own are terrible investments, many providing negative returns no matter how long you hold them for.

Stocks collectively however perform well over the long term. The S&P 500 averages about a 10% return annually. It's never a consistent return mind you (it can get pretty volatile), but the point is, over time stocks rise. Patience, my friend.

Market noise can create a bumpy ride for investors, but if you're a long term investor with a well-diversified portfolio, you can ignore the daily noise and enjoy the expected positive returns.















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