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Bias For Clarity

Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction.   Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud.  Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end.  The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off.  Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea

Are IPOs a Good Investment?



Lemonade, a fast growing insurtech company recently took its stock public. Listed on July 2, it sprinted out the gates. In only a few days, the price soared 200%. Rocketing from $29 to $90.

Lemonade is a breath of fresh air in the insurance industry. An old-school, high-margin industry ripe for disruption. This is a compelling story, one that made me pay attention pre-IPO. When the IPO happened, I couldn't help but to regret not investing. I could have tripled my money!

IPOs are naturally tempting. The potential leaves investors salivating. The chance to get in on the ground floor of a future Amazon? Sign me up.

As exciting as they seem, their historical performance leaves a lot to be desired. IPOs are just stocks, and like most individual stocks, they underperform the market.

Even if we just look at first year performance, where interest is highest, underperformance is prevalent. A DFA study analyzed the first year performance of over 6000 IPOs from 1990-2018 and found that they lag behind the market by 2%.   

Compelling stories are not enough to make great investments.

Uber is incredibly popular. They dominate the world of ride-sharing and have completely displaced the legacy cab industry. A true disrupter. A great investment, right?

Well....Uber IPO'd at $45 in 2019 and a year later it's trading at around $30.

What about Fitbit? Everybody has one, health-awareness is growing, wearable tech is growing, this has to be good.

Nope. Fitbit IPO'd at $20 in 2015 and 5 years later it's trading at around $6.

It's really hard to predict which IPOs will turn out to be great investments. Some might have a strong first day or first few years but if history tells us anything, most will fail. There will only be a few extreme winners and it's near-impossible to pick them.

So despite the initial FOMO, I won't be buying Lemonade, or any IPO. While they're exciting, I've come to realize successful long-term investing tends to be boring. I'll stick to my index funds.












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Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction.   Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud.  Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end.  The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off.  Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea