Big Drawdowns: The Wild Ride To Riches

Every investor daydreams about going back in time and getting in on the ground floor of a super successful company. Amazon went public at $18 and now trades above $3000. That's a whopping return of 17,000%! Being an early investor would've made you filthy rich - if you were able to hold on.

Staying invested is much easier said than done. Hindsight is 20/20. We have the privilege of knowing things worked out for Amazon, but it was a bumpy ride.

While there were many years of amazing returns, there were also tense moments where all seemed lost. To endure these drawdowns you would've needed an iron stomach.

Year	Annual Return
1998	966.39%
1999	42.18%
2000	-79.56%
2001	-30.47%
2002	74.58%
2003	178.56%
2004	-15.83%
2005	6.46%
2006	-16.31%
2007	134.77%
2008	-44.65%
2009	162.32%
2010	33.81%
2011	-3.83%
2012	44.93%
2013	58.96%
2014	-22.18%
2015	117.78%
2016	10.95%
2017	55.96%
2018	28.43%
2019	23.03%

Would you've been able to hold on during the Great Financial Crisis or during the Tech Bubble? I wouldn't have.

A lot of stocks don't come back. Every year companies fail, even industry titans that once were unstoppable. Yahoo, Myspace, Enron, Blockbuster.

It can be incredibly rewarding to ride out the downs, but things can also turn grim. A bounce back might never happen.

How do you know when a drawdown is temporary or when it's permanent? You won't. That risk is part of the deal.

Comments

The Art of Giving Feedback

Constructive feedback is an awkward affair. You don't want hurt feelings, but recognize the importance of honesty. You've tried the classic "hoping things will get better on its own" and unfortunately it hasn't played out. When giving feedback, here are a few things that I try to keep it mind. Start with empathy. Step into their shoes and understand their story. If you don't know, ask. Be genuinely curious. Feedback is a dynamic affair. Shared communication with a shared goal towards progress. Take the emotion out of it. Focus on the situation, not the person. Focusing on the person adds unnecessary weight to an already emotionally-bloated event. Be specific. Give clear examples. Vague feedback equals dismissed feedback. Doing above won't de-awkward things fully, but it will dampen it and increase the chance of better outcomes.

Bias For Clarity

Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction. Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud. Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end. The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off. Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea

Negative Feedback, Positive Lessons

In the battle against plastic bags, a five-cent tax was shown to be much more successful at deterring usage than a five-cent credit for bringing your own bags. Carrots satisfy but sticks sting, and they sting hard. So we default to the less painful choice of avoiding loss. Loss aversion impacts the way we process information. A 2019 study invited participants to learn through a series of multiple choice questions. Each question only had two options to choose from. Whether guessing correctly or not, they would still learn the right answer. Despite the identical learning opportunity, participants were much more successful at recalling the answers they guessed correctly than those they got wrong. "You're right!" feels good. We savour the moment, analyzing every detail. "You're wrong!" stings. We want to quickly forget, dismiss, and move on. When we succumb to loss aversion, we miss opportunities to learn. Failure is part of the process. We'll experie

Herman Ye

Search