Skip to main content

Waiting For The Bottom to Invest?

There's nothing like finding a good deal. You feel like an absolute winner tracking one down. Purchases feel more special as they're paired with a sense of accomplishment. Food tastes better. Clothes look sharper. 

The opposite is also true. A bad deal feels foolish and taints all that's associated. No one wants to get ripped off. As investors, this aversion can make us hesitant to invest during a bull market. 

Today's market feels frothy. The market is constantly rising and bubble talks dominate the airwaves. To invest right before a market crash would be devastating. The ultimate rip-off. 

"I'll wait for things to settle down" is a common sentiment. The problem is, no knows when that will be. Meaningful pull backs are few and far between. Unlike retail, deals don't happen on a schedule. Waiting on the sidelines means risking significant growth. All time highs are typically followed by more all time highs. Missing the best market days can be costly. 

Also, there's no guarantee you'll be able to pull the trigger when a crash does come. Crashes are scary. When everyone's running for the hills, do you have the conviction to invest? Especially when you've gotten comfortable sitting on cash. Maybe again you'll want to wait for things to settle down.

There will always be risk no matter where we are in the cycle. The key is to have a risk appropriate portfolio that you can invest in all the time. Over the long term, things will likely work out. Ignore the noise and just be consistent.


Popular posts from this blog

The Art of Giving Feedback

Constructive feedback is an awkward affair. You don't want hurt feelings, but recognize the importance of honesty. You've tried the classic "hoping things will get better on its own" and unfortunately it hasn't played out. When giving feedback, here are a few things that I try to keep it mind. Start with empathy. Step into their shoes and understand their story. If you don't know, ask. Be genuinely curious. Feedback is a dynamic affair. Shared communication with a shared goal towards progress. Take the emotion out of it. Focus on the situation, not the person. Focusing on the person adds unnecessary weight to an already emotionally-bloated event.  Be specific. Give clear examples. Vague feedback equals dismissed feedback.  Doing above won't de-awkward things fully, but it will dampen it and increase the chance of better outcomes. 

Bias For Clarity

Bias for action. Gets things done. Go-getter. Traits companies big and small look for. And for good reason, you're being hired to do things! However, action is a secondary step that often overshadows the primary step, direction.   Clear direction is the foundation that enables our actions to takeoff. Without it, we're stuck in the mud.  Striving for clarity is an underrated skill. Having the courage to ask ( seemingly ) obvious questions, and to check in, making sure we're all on the same page. "O bvious " questions are a low risk, high reward way to add value. At worst, you'll add confidence to our actions. At best, you discover a misalignment that saves us from a dead-end.  The more people, the more clear we need to be. The bigger the initiative, the bigger the risk of reaching the finish line, only to realize expectations were off.  Success is always uncertain. But we can be certain about what we want and what everyone's job is. Things that can be clea

Negative Feedback, Positive Lessons

In the battle against plastic bags, a five-cent tax was shown to be much more successful at deterring usage than a five-cent credit for bringing your own bags. Carrots satisfy but sticks sting, and they sting hard. So we default to the less painful choice of avoiding loss. Loss aversion impacts the way we process information. A 2019 study  invited participants to learn through a series of multiple choice questions. Each question only had two options to choose from. Whether guessing correctly or not, they would still learn the right answer.  Despite the identical learning opportunity, participants were much more successful at recalling the answers they guessed correctly than those they got wrong.  "You're right!" feels good. We savour the moment, analyzing every detail.  "You're wrong!" stings. We want to quickly forget, dismiss, and move on.  When we succumb to loss aversion, we miss opportunities to learn. Failure is part of the process. We'll experie